A Slow-Rolling Disaster: Assessing the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Militant Violence

Despite alarming predications about the Covid 19 pandemic that appear to fit the literature on the impact of natural disasters on civil wars, there are reasons to be suspicious that a rise in militant violence would likely occur quickly or uniformly. Although the COVID-19 pandemic is most definitely a disaster that caught the world by surprise, this "slow-rolling” shock differs in important ways from the more commonly studied acute onset natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis that often increase violent competition among groups for scarce resources. Instead, the effects of slow-rolling disasters unfold in phases that, at least in the short run, are likely to encourage a period of relative decline in violence, as actors try and assess the effects of COVID-19 on their organization and their opponents. Both statistical and qualitative evidence from the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic supports the initial phases of our theory. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Conflict Resolution is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Data-Resource Profile: United Kingdom Optimum Patient Care Research Database.

Introduction: Electronic medical records (EMRs) maintained in primary care in the UK and collected and stored in EMR databases offer a world-leading resource for observational clinical research. We aimed to profile one such database: the Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD). Methods and Participants: The OPCRD, incepted in 2010, is a growing primary care EMR database collecting data from 992 general practices within the UK. It covers over 16.6 million patients across all four countries within the UK, and is broadly representative of the UK population in terms of age, sex, ethnicity and socio-economic status. Patients have a mean duration of 11.7 years' follow-up (SD 17.50), with a majority having key summary data from birth to last data entry. Data for the OPCRD are collected incrementally monthly and extracted from all of the major clinical software systems used within the UK and across all four coding systems (Read version 2, Read CTV3, SNOMED DM+D and SNOMED CT codes). Via quality-improvement programmes provided to GP surgeries, the OPCRD also includes patient-reported outcomes from a range of disease-specific validated questionnaires, with over 66,000 patient responses on asthma, COPD, and COVID-19. Further, bespoke data collection is possible by working with GPs to collect new research via patient-reported questionnaires. Findings to Date: The OPCRD has contributed to over 96 peer-reviewed research publications since its inception encompassing a broad range of medical conditions, including COVID-19. Conclusion: The OPCRD represents a unique resource with great potential to support epidemiological research, from retrospective observational studies through to embedded cluster-randomised trials. Advantages of the OPCRD over other EMR databases are its large size, UK-wide geographical coverage, the availability of up-to-date patient data from all major GP software systems, and the unique collection of patient-reported information on respiratory health.

Digitally deployed, GP remote consultation video intervention that aims to reduce opioid prescribing in primary care: protocol for a mixed-methods evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Opioid prescribing rates are disproportionately high in the North of England. In addition to patients' complex health needs, clinician prescribing behaviour is also a key driver. Although strategies have been initiated to reduce opioid prescribing nationally, the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted service provision and created challenges for the system and health professionals to tackle this complex issue. A pilot intervention using smartphone video messaging has been developed to remotely explain the rationale for opioid reduction and facilitate self-initiation of support. The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential benefits, risks and economic consequences of 'at scale' implementation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This will be a mixed-methods study comprising a quasi-experimental non-randomised before-and-after study and qualitative interviews. The intervention arm will comprise 50 General Practitioner (GP) Practices using System 1 (a clinical computer system hosting the intervention) who will deliver the video to their patients via text message. The control arm will comprise 50 practices using EMIS (a different computer system) who will continue usual care. Monthly practice level prescribing and consultation data will be observed for 6 months postintervention. A general linear model will be used to estimate the association between the exposure and the main outcome (opioid prescribing; average daily quantity (ADQ)/1000 specific therapeutic group age-sex related prescribing unit). Semi-structured interviews will be undertaken remotely with purposively selected participants including patients who received the video, and health professionals involved in sending out the videos and providing additional support. Interviews will be audio recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been granted by the NHS Health Research Authority Research Ethics Committee (22/PR/0296). Findings will be disseminated to the participating sites, participants, and commissioners, and in peer-reviewed journals and academic conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05276089.

Cardiovascular-related conditions and risk factors in primary care for deprived communities before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study in Northern England.

OBJECTIVES: The North East of England, ranked as having the highest poverty levels and the lowest health outcomes, has the highest cardiovascular disease (CVD) premature mortality. This study aimed to compare CVD-related conditions and risk factors for deprived practice populations with other general practice (GP) populations in Northern England to England overall, before and during COVID-19 to identify changes in recorded CVD-related risk factors and conditions and evidence-based lipid prescribing behaviour. DESIGN: A population-based observational study of aggregated practice-level data obtained from publicly accessible data sets. SETTING: 34 practices that fall into the 15% most deprived practice populations in England were identified as the most deprived communities in the North East and North Cumbria (Deep End). PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥16 registered with GP and diagnosed with any form of CVD. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: CVD-related conditions and risk factors, statin prescribing. RESULTS: Deep End (n=263 830) had a smaller, younger and more deprived population with lower levels of employment and full-time education and higher smoking prevalence. They had some higher recorded CVD-related conditions than England but lower than the non-Deep End. Atrial fibrillation (-0.9, -0.5), hypertension (-3.7, -1.3) and stroke and transient ischaemic attack rates (-0.5, -0.1) appeared to be lower in the Deep End than in the non-Deep End but the optimal statin prescribing rate was higher (3.1, 8.2) than in England. CONCLUSION: Recorded CVD-related risk factors and conditions remained comparable before and during COVID-19. These are higher in the Deep End than in England and similar or lower than the non-Deep End, with a higher optimal statin prescribing rate. However, it was not possible to control for age and sex. More work is needed to estimate the consequences of the pandemic on disadvantaged communities and to compare whether the findings are replicated in other areas of deprivation.

Auditory rhythmical cueing to improve gait in community-dwelling stroke survivors (ACTIVATE): a pilot randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Gait impairment limiting mobility and restricting activities is common after stroke. Auditory rhythmical cueing (ARC) uses a metronome beat delivered during exercise to train stepping and early work reports gait improvements. This study aimed to establish the feasibility of a full scale multicentre randomised controlled trial to evaluate an ARC gait and balance training programme for use by stroke survivors in the home and outdoors. METHODS: A parallel-group observer-blind pilot randomised controlled trial was conducted. Adults within 2 years of stroke with a gait-related mobility impairment were recruited from four NHS stroke services and randomised to an ARC gait and balance training programme (intervention) or the training programme without ARC (control). Both programmes consisted of 3x30 min sessions per week for 6 weeks undertaken at home/nearby outdoor community. One session per week was supervised and the remainder self-managed. Gait and balance performance assessments were undertaken at baseline, 6 and 10 weeks. Key trial outcomes included recruitment and retention rates, programme adherence, assessment data completeness and safety. RESULTS: Between November 2018 and February 2020, 59 participants were randomised (intervention n=30, control n=29), mean recruitment rate 4/month. At baseline, 6 weeks and 10 weeks, research assessments were conducted for 59/59 (100%), 47/59 (80%) and 42/59 (71%) participants, respectively. Missing assessments were largely due to discontinuation of data collection from mid-March 2020 because of the UK COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. The proportion of participants with complete data for each individual performance assessment ranged from 100% at baseline to 68% at 10 weeks. In the intervention group, 433/540 (80%) total programme exercise sessions were undertaken, in the control group, 390/522 (75%). Falls were reported by five participants in the intervention group, six in the control group. Three serious adverse events occurred, all unrelated to the study. CONCLUSION: We believe that a definitive multicentre RCT to evaluate the ARC gait and balance training programme is feasible. Recruitment, programme adherence and safety were all acceptable. Although we consider that the retention rate and assessment data completeness were not sufficient for a future trial, this was largely due to the UK COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN10874601 , Registered on 05/03/2018.

Perceived feasibility, facilitators and barriers to incorporating point-of-care testing for SARS-CoV-2 into emergency medical services by ambulance service staff: a survey-based approach.

OBJECTIVES: This body of work aimed to elicit ambulance service staff's perceptions on the barriers and facilitators to adoption, and clinical utility of incorporating rapid SARS-CoV-2 testing during ambulance assessments. DESIGN: A mixed-methods survey-based project using a framework analysis method to organise qualitative data. SETTING: Emergency and non-emergency care ambulatory services in the UK were approached to take part. PARTICIPANTS: Current, practising members of the UK ambulance service (paramedics, technicians, assistants and other staff) were included in this body of work. RESULTS: Survey 1: 226 responses were collected between 3 December 2020 and 11 January 2021, 179 (79.2%) of which were completed in full. While the majority of respondents indicated that an ambulance-based testing strategy was feasible in concept (143/190, 75.3%), major barriers to adoption were noted. Many open-ended responses cited concerns regarding misuse of the service by the general public and other healthcare services, timing and conveyance issues, and increased workloads, alongside training and safety concerns. Survey 2: 26 responses were received between 8 February 2021 and 22 February 2021 to this follow-up survey. Survey 2 revealed conveyance decision-making, and risk stratification to be the most frequently prioritised use cases among ambulance service staff. Optimal test characteristics for clinical adoption according to respondents were; accuracy (above 90% sensitivity and specificity), rapidity (<30 min time to results) and ease of sample acquisition. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of commercially available lateral flow devices are unlikely to be supported by paramedics as their duty of care requires both rapid and accurate results that can inform clinical decision making in an emergency situation. Further investigation is needed to define acceptable test characteristics and criteria required for ambulance service staff to be confident and supportive of deployment of a SARS-CoV-2 test in an emergency care setting.

COLLAGEN-PEPTIDE-BASED DRUG DELIVERY STRATEGIES

Collagen-targeting strategies have proven to be an effective method for targeting drugs to pathological tissues for treatment of disease. The use of collagen-like peptides for controlling the assembly of drug delivery vehicles, as well as their integration into collagen-containing matrices, offers significant advantages for tuning the morphologies of assembled structures, their thermoresponsiveness, and the loading and release of both small-molecule and macromolecular cargo. In this contribution, we summarize the design and development of collagen-peptide-based drug delivery systems introduced by the Kiick group and detail the expansion of our understanding and the application of these unique molecules through collaborations with experts in computational simulations (Jayaraman), osteoarthritis (Price), and gene delivery (Sullivan). Kiick was inducted as a Fellow of the National Academy of Inventors in 2019 and was to deliver an address describing the innovations of her research. Given the cancellation of the NAI Annual Meeting as a result of coronavirus travel restrictions, her work based on collagen-peptide-mediated assembly is instead summarized in this contribution.

A Novel Combination of Blood Biomarkers and Clinical Stroke Scales Facilitates Detection of Large Vessel Occlusion Ischemic Strokes.

Acute ischemic stroke caused by large vessel occlusions (LVOs) is a major contributor to stroke deaths and disabilities; however, identification for emergency treatment is challenging. We recruited two separate cohorts of suspected stroke patients and screened a panel of blood-derived protein biomarkers for LVO detection. Diagnostic performance was estimated by using blood biomarkers in combination with NIHSS-derived stroke severity scales. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that D-dimer (OR 16, 95% CI 5-60; p-value < 0.001) and GFAP (OR 0.002, 95% CI 0-0.68; p-value < 0.05) comprised the optimal panel for LVO detection. Combinations of D-dimer and GFAP with a number of stroke severity scales increased the number of true positives, while reducing false positives due to hemorrhage, as compared to stroke scales alone (p-value < 0.001). A combination of the biomarkers with FAST-ED resulted in the highest accuracy at 95% (95% CI: 87-99%), with sensitivity of 91% (95% CI: 72-99%), and specificity of 96% (95% CI: 90-99%). Diagnostic accuracy was confirmed in an independent cohort, in which accuracy was again shown to be 95% (95% CI: 87-99%), with a sensitivity of 82% (95% CI: 57-96%), and specificity of 98% (95% CI: 92-100%). Accordingly, the combination of D-dimer and GFAP with stroke scales may provide a simple and highly accurate tool for identifying LVO patients, with a potential impact on time to treatment.

COVID-19 impacts and adaptations in Asia and Africa's aquatic food value chains.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a shock affecting all areas of the global food system. We tracked the impacts of COVID-19 and associated policy responses on the availability and price of aquatic foods and production inputs during 2020, using a high frequency longitudinal survey of 768 respondents in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Myanmar, Nigeria. We found the following: (1) Aquatic food value chains were severely disrupted but most effects on the availability and accessibility of aquatic foods and production inputs were short-lived. (2) Impacts on demand for aquatic foods, production inputs, and labor have been longer lasting than impacts on their supply. (3) Retail prices of aquatic foods spiked briefly during March-May 2020 but trended down thereafter, whereas prices of production inputs rose. These trends suggest a deepening 'squeeze' on the financial viability of producers and other value chain actors. (4) Survey respondents adapted to the challenges of COVID-19 by reducing production costs, sourcing alternative inputs, diversifying business activities, leveraging social capital, borrowing, seeking alternative employment, and reducing food consumption. Many of these coping strategies are likely to undermine well-being and longer-term resilience, but we also find some evidence of proactive strategies with potential to strengthen business performance. Global production of aquatic food likely contracted significantly in 2020. The importance of aquatic food value chains in supporting livelihoods and food and nutrition security in Asia and Africa makes their revitalization essential in the context of COVID-19 recovery efforts. We outline immediate and longer-term policies and interventions to support this goal.